Disclaimer

The information contained in this communication is provided for informational purposes only and has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is being made, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of such information, nor is it recommended that such information serve as the basis of any investment decision. This report contains forward-looking statements that are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and the predictions, forecasts, projections and other outcomes described herein may not occur. A number of important factors could cause results to differ materially from the views and opinions expressed herein and there are no guarantees of return. This material is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to purchase securities of any kind. Before making an investment of any kind, readers should carefully consider their financial position and risk tolerance to determine if such investment is appropriate. Mr. Jurgensmeyer may allocate assets to positions described herein and reserves the right to enter, modify or exit any such positions without notice.

Monday, April 30, 2012

A different world cannot be built by indifferent people

I got a very timely fortune cookie the other day.  It sums up most of why I'm writing this blog.  I know I speak mostly about financial topics, but I really am trying to open some eyes.  Anyway here it is.

"A different world cannot be built by indifferent people"

This video titled "If I wanted America to Fail" follows this same thought.



********************************************************************************

These were posted by Krieger over the weekend.  I've got a nice theme going today.

 Backlash Against the TSA Shredding the 4th Amendment in Houston

Posted on April 27, 2012
My Take: This fits in nicely with my article from yesterday about how 9/11 continues to be used to dismantle the Constitution and further our progression into a police state.  For those of you who haven’t read the Constitution in a while this is what the 4th Amendment states:

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

Is this really the kind of country you want to live in where government bureaucrats treat you like a criminal everywhere you go?  Are you really that afraid of terrorists?  Remember what the very wise Ben Franklin made clear centuries ago that “those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.”

How about we stop being a nation of frightened children and stand up proud and strong for freedom and liberty.  That’s why all of our ancestors came here in the first place .  Let’s not throw away all they sacrificed for us.

CISPA – The New Big Brother Bill and Why You Should Hate it

Posted on April 29, 2012
My Take: The articles below speak for themselves.  After popular revulsion was able to thwart the prior Constitution demolishing internet spy bills, our “representatives” in Congress have regrouped and passed something far worse in the House with a vote now set for the Senate.  As I have maintained for quite a long time, I believe much of Congress is cognizant of their criminal behavior and more importantly they view themselves as better than “we the people” and are now openly manifesting their fear and disgust for the citizenry by passing authoritarian bill after authoritarian bill to protect themselves from the people they supposedly represent.  I want to close my thoughts with a powerful quote from one of my American heroes – Henry David Thoreau.  I’m not trying to tell anyone what they should or shouldn’t do, but I am one hundred percent certain that we all need to think about these things more deeply than ever before.

Must the citizen ever for a moment, or in the least degree, resign his conscience to the legislator? Why has every man a conscience, then? I think that we should be men first, and subjects afterward. It is not desirable to cultivate a respect for the law, so much as for the right. The only obligation which I have a right to assume is to do at any time what I think right.

I agree with the above.  I do not answer to any man or man-made institution. We must answer to something far higher than that, whatever that may mean to you.  We are sovereign human beings and we should never under any circumstances live on our knees or expect our others to do so.

********************************************************************************

Turn on the printing presses.  Somebody go get more ink!

Global Policy Shifting From Austerity Toward Growth

Growth in the United States is softening, the slump in Europe deepening and Britain has fallen back into recession, heightening concern that efforts to cut budget gaps could go too far.

Fiscal austerity has been the mantra on both sides of the Atlantic for the past two years. The tide now appears to be turning.

In Europe, socialist Francois Hollande, who is favored to win the run-off election for the French presidency on Sunday, has laid out a growth agenda. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, after pushing through tough budget reforms, is calling on the European Union to back a growth plan.

European Central Bank   President Mario Draghi wants a "growth compact" for Europe to complement its fiscal compact, an issue he is likely to be quizzed on at his monthly news conference on Thursday.

Even Germany, fast losing allies for its harsh fiscal medicine after the Dutch government fell over budget cuts, is modifying its tone. "We are not the (fiscal) consolidation Taliban," German Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Steffen said at a conference last week.

In the United States too, there are tentative signs the fiscal debate is poised for recalibration.

"Harsh austerity was all the rage, and it drove the (U.S.) Republican Tea Party landslide in 2010 and became the dominant prescription in Europe," said Greg Valliere, political economist at Potomac Research Group.

"Now it's in retreat on both sides of the Atlantic."

Analysts point to U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch O'Connell's decision to withhold his support for the tough budget adopted by the Republican-controlled House, which would deepen domestic spending cuts beyond levels agreed in torturous deficits talks last August.

A new poll hints at a waning of support for the Tea Party, the driving force behind deep budget cuts. An ABC News/Washington Post poll on April 15 found that Americans by a broad 23-point margin say the more they hear about the Tea Party, the less they like it. Its support has slipped to 41 percent of Americans from 47 percent last September, the poll found.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week issued his sternest warning yet over the risks of sharp fiscal contraction. Numerous tax cuts are due to expire and budget cuts will kick in at year end, enough to withdraw $500 billion from the economy. Analysts say that would cut 3 to 5 percentage points from growth and tip the economy back into recession.

"There is, I think, absolutely no chance that the Federal Reserve could or would have any ability whatsoever to offset that effect on the economy," Bernanke said.

Although it is too early to tell exactly how the U.S. budget debate will play out in November's elections, analysts say an awareness is gradually building in both Europe and the United States that too-fast budgetary consolidation could actually damage the goal of debt reduction.

Investors also may be willing to give governments leeway.

"Politicians are nervous that loosening the fiscal brake will be taken negatively by markets. But we have reached the point where the contrary is true," said Martin Lueck, an economist at UBS Investment Research.

"If there is a realistic stance of supporting growth on the one hand and fiscal consolidation on the other hand, it will be well received," he said.

ESCAPING THE TRAP

Paul McCulley, former managing director at the giant bond fund PIMCO and now at the think tank Global Interdependence Center, says indebted Western nations are running full force into a liquidity trap. Households, corporations and governments are deleveraging at the same time, sucking all the drivers of growth from the economy and worsening budgets.

No matter how much money a central bank pumps in to hold interest rates low and ease deleveraging, it isn't enough to brake the vicious downward cycle as governments cut budgets, he argues.

"Fiscal austerity does not work in a liquidity trap and makes as much sense as putting an anorexic on a diet. Yet diets are the very prescription that fiscal austerians have imposed," he said in a paper delivered last month at the Bank of France.

John Maynard Keynes called this the paradox of thrift - by paying off debt and saving more, growth weakens and budget deficits and debt levels worsen.

The answer, said McCulley, is for governments to spend more, supported by a central bank that buys up government debt. This will reflate the economy, restore demand and avert depression, which in turn will allow government debt to be paid down.

The U.S. economy has not reached the point of ever-worsening deficits. But first-quarter GDP growth slowed to a 2.2 percent annual rate from 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter. A taste of whether the slowing continued into the second quarter will come in the April jobs report on Friday.

While analysts forecast 170,000 new jobs added, a gain from 120,000 in March, that would be down from the 246,000 monthly average seen from December to February. But seasonal quirks and warm winter weather may depress the number.

A national factory index and U.S. car sales data on Tuesday are expected to show steady growth, which would support the Fed view that the U.S. economy is gradually firming.

No comments:

Post a Comment