Disclaimer

The information contained in this communication is provided for informational purposes only and has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is being made, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of such information, nor is it recommended that such information serve as the basis of any investment decision. This report contains forward-looking statements that are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and the predictions, forecasts, projections and other outcomes described herein may not occur. A number of important factors could cause results to differ materially from the views and opinions expressed herein and there are no guarantees of return. This material is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to purchase securities of any kind. Before making an investment of any kind, readers should carefully consider their financial position and risk tolerance to determine if such investment is appropriate. Mr. Jurgensmeyer may allocate assets to positions described herein and reserves the right to enter, modify or exit any such positions without notice.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Mr. Market's Wild Ride

It's crazy that a headline about a bank, maybe receiving help, could swing the market 400 points in 30 minutes.  One thing I do know, fundamentals don't really matter.  Good companies can go down just as much as bad ones.  The trick is to stay true to your beliefs and realize that these short term swings shouldn't affect your long term plan.  I have quite a bit to read today.  I don't really have a theme, so here goes.

I posted a link the other day about Gold ATMs.  China announced yesterday they are putting in 2000 of them.  You still think gold doesn't have a place in the currency world?

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The guy worked in your administration, Joe...

Vice President Joe Biden doesn't know who Van Jones is

Tuesday morning on AM Tampa Bay on 970 WFLA, Vice President Joe Biden was asked by Jack Harris about the Occupy Wall Street Movement.  The VP said "I really don't know about the Van Jones group, except what I read in the press."  The group is currently protesting in New York City against the social and economic inequality, corporate greed and the influence of corporate money and lobbyists on government.

Later in his response in talking about the frustration seen in the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street Group, Biden said "you have on the one end Van Jones' guys, whoever he is, talking about Wall Street."  Jack Harris and Tedd Webb stopped him to tell him he had previously been "Green Czar" in the administration.  The VP responded, "Oh is that... alright"

Van Jones was appointed by President Barack Obama in March of 2009 to the newly created position of Special Advisor for Green Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation at the White House Council of Environmental Quality. Politico reports that Van Jones was vetted by Joe Biden himself.  Van Jones wrote about the VP on the White House website.

Jones resigned from the Obama administration in September, 2009 amidst controversies including his statements alleging U.S. government complicity in the 9/11 attacks as well as particularly disparaging comments about the GOP.

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20% of Americans don't have a job, but the first lady doesn't have a problem taking her entourage to Africa on our dime.  My favorite part might be that the kids were listed as "senior staff".  The half million was just the airfare.

Over $500,000 spent on Michele's trip

How much does it cost taxpayers to fly First Lady Michelle Obama, her two daughters and her mother, a niece and a nephew, a hairstylist and makeup artists to South Africa and Botswana to give a few speeches, meet Nelson Mandela, and enjoy a safari on a private game preserve?

Nearly half a million dollars, according to documents obtained by Judicial Watch via the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) concerning Obama's June 21-27 journey.

Judicial Watch said the U.S. Air Force provided a C-32 - a Boeing 757 modified by the military for the purpose of flying big-wigs around the world - to fly the First Lady and her entourage to and from Africa, at a cost of $424,142. Another $928.44 was listed as the cost of providing 192 meals for the 21 people who made the trip

The Obama daughters were listed on the manifest as "senior staff."

“This trip was as much an opportunity for the Obama family to go on a safari as it was a trip to conduct government business,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton.  “This junket wasted tax dollars and the resources of our overextended military.  No wonder we had to sue to pry loose this information.”

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This is what I mean when I talk of fundamentals in investing.  The physical metal is being snatched up on every dip.  No matter what the price you see on CNBC.  That is just manipulated by the powers that be.  Currently on the CRIMEX, silver is trading about 20% of the known silver in the world on a daily basis.  Tell me how that can be possible.

Indian Silver Demand Leads to Supply Issues, Capacity Stretched, Higher Premiums

Physical demand for silver remains high and is being reflected in a slight uptick in premiums. GoldCore have seen continuing coin and bar demand and physical buyers are not being deterred by the latest sell off on the COMEX market. Those buying silver continue to expect silver to rise to $50/oz and many expect silver to rise to over $140/oz which is the real record (CPI inflation adjusted) high from 1980.

Demand from western buyers remains minimal as buyers remain a contrarian few with the majority of investors and savers having no allocation to silver whatsoever.

However, this is not the case in Asia where both gold and silver are held in far higher esteem and appreciated for their wealth preservation qualities.

Indian demand has been very significant in months and has accelerated in recent days after the sell off and tentative signs of a bottoming.

 Heightened physical demand for silver from the Indian subcontinent is causing “supply issues” according to UBS this morning. UBS note that airline capacity  to deliver the precious metal is being “stretched” and premiums are unsurprisingly on the rise.

With gold having risen 17% year to date but silver flat so far in 2011, many in Asia are seeing silver as better value at these price levels. Also, many buyers in Asia cannot afford gold at these prices and thus are buying silver instead as silver again fulfills its roles as “poor man’s gold”.

The physical silver market remains tiny vis-à-vis equity, bond and currency markets and even a small increase in allocations to silver could lead to sharply higher prices. As ever buyers should focus on value rather than price and use silver as a wealth preservation tool rather than simply for capital gains.

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Since I'm on a metals roll...

Johnson: I'm Still Buying Gold

Lending money to a European Investment Banks who form a Special Purpose Vehicle who issues bonds guaranteed by broke countries to use as collateral to borrow more money to buy more bad debt? That's their plan? No thank you; I'm still buying gold.

The financial markets are not their usual jovial selves, aggravated by the inconsiderate nature of fiat currency. Gold, long touted as the antibody to central banks and political brinkmanship, has failed to hold up its end of the bargain. (Track Gold & All the Metals Here)

Everybody likes a winner, unless they consistently picked them to lose badly. As the price of gold dropped from a high of over $1,900 an ounce to sub $1,600 territory, the run seemed beleaguered, if not altogether dated. But unlike most things that involve money and emotion, this isn’t all that complicated.

Last quarter’s fixation with the obvious, that developed nations have underwhelming economies and mature obligations, has awakened the bears from hibernation. The European debt crisis, known for being easy to look at and hard to watch, motivated the US money market funds to reduce their exposure to Europe by $700 billion.

The European banks, however, must not only repay previous short term financing received from American institutions, but account for 25 percent of all commercial and industrial loans in the United States. Starved for dollar denominated assets intended to fulfill transactions, they likely pawned the precious metal to manufacture liquidity the way once wealthy families part with remnants of a more prosperous time.

It seems that roller coaster rides to nowhere impact sophisticated investors as well. Given the recent volatility, margin calls where triggered, prompting traders to sell assets with double digit year to date returns as liquidity needs trumped long-term concerns about the health of sovereign debt. The exchange operator CME also raised the margin requirements on gold by21 percent, forcing speculators to put more skin in the game.

Despite the rotation of balance sheets and bandwagons, Greece still teeters precariously on the brink of default, and with it, the prospects that Italy and Spain will soon find themselves on the coattails of excess. A bailout of Italy alone would cost €2 trillion and Apple is worth more than the top 32 European banks combined. Gold may have dropped from its peak, but Europe is still broke.

One of the proposed solutions is to increase the European Stabilization Fund and create a European Investment Bank that in turn forms a Special Purpose Vehicle to issue bonds and purchase suspect debt, which would of course be guaranteed by nations who may need a bailout themselves.

Investors must wonder when shell games replaced affluence and gimmicks became the kissing cousin of opulence. It should be obvious that fiat currency is the silhouette of a free market economy that hasn’t existed for some time, the body long ravaged by thirty years of debt.

As one reviews the reasons why gold recently dropped, the case for owning the hard asset becomes stronger than originally thought. Greece’s economy will contract by over five percent this year, which causes tax revenue to drop by 10 percent. Austerity measures originally meant to solve the problem are now the hoe that digs a deeper hole.

Gold has seen price declines like this before, although the global economy has little experience unwinding this much debt. The need for liquidity may have been temporarily solved, but paper money still isn’t backed by anything of value. It should strike as ominous that when a real asset was in demand, gold was held in the highest regard.

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And now for the bizarre.

Driverless Car Does Donuts

D’Amico said that he found an opportunity to jump into the passenger-side window while he was standing inside the circle the car was making.

The empty older model Ford Thunderbird took to the road on its own when the driver got out of the car in order to switch seats with his passenger, officials said

The car's passenger suffered minor injuries when he tried to jump back in the car earlier.

They then called 9-1-1 to get some help, authorities said.

The rebel car was towed away from the scene. Its owner had no comment on the matter Monday.

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I can't believe they pulled Hank.

ESPN pulls Williams from MNF opening



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This was all the talk in the markets yesterday.  Kinda spooky...

For Those Who Don't Believe History Can Repeat Itself

We posted this earlier, that the S&P 500 closed at exactly the same level yesterday as it did on October 3, 2008: 1099.23.
Anyway, this is really making the rounds on Wall Street today.
Citi's technical analysis folks sent it out in chart form with the amusing title: For Those Who Don't Believe History Repeats Itself...
As you can see, not only did the market close at the same level, well... markets got slaughtered right after that.


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