Disclaimer

The information contained in this communication is provided for informational purposes only and has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is being made, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of such information, nor is it recommended that such information serve as the basis of any investment decision. This report contains forward-looking statements that are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and the predictions, forecasts, projections and other outcomes described herein may not occur. A number of important factors could cause results to differ materially from the views and opinions expressed herein and there are no guarantees of return. This material is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to purchase securities of any kind. Before making an investment of any kind, readers should carefully consider their financial position and risk tolerance to determine if such investment is appropriate. Mr. Jurgensmeyer may allocate assets to positions described herein and reserves the right to enter, modify or exit any such positions without notice.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Full Thursday

Sorry that I haven't posted since last week.  I'll try to make for it by giving you mostly video.  Let's get the most important stuff out first.  National signing day was yesterday.  DGB - the nations top recruit chose Mizzou over Arkansas.  It was very disappointing but I wish him all the best.  I can't wait to watch his MVP performances in the Music City Bowl or Liberty Bowl.

While I'm on football, I got this from my Bro-in-law.

It comes with Les Miles and zero points...






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Keller's Concealed Handgun License Radio Ad


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This is hilarious. She voted for the Patriot Act, but is outraged when it is used against her.



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From Larry Levin yesterday:

All of the following headlines are interesting but the most important one, the headline that tells us why intra-day trading has been so lame, is number one.

Volume is abysmal. CNBC and other outlets, including us, mention it repeatedly; but did you know just how bad it is? In January of last year, the average number of daily NYSE volume was 891mm shares vs 661mm for this January, which is a 26% drop compared to this January.  Compared to Jan 2008, however, it is even worse: volume is down an implausible (given the rally) 59%!

Speaking of the rally, the S&P has had its best January despite the putrid volume, in 15 years. Think about how insane this is: the S&P is up more in Jan 2012 than in the blow-off-top years that culminated in the 2000 crash including; (Jan’s) 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000!

While volume is down tremendously and stocks are enjoying their best start since 1997, the real unemployment rate is the worst it has been since the Great Depression.

But for the willingness of central bankers to counterfeit currency, the vast majority of European NATIONS (not just banks) are insolvent.

Speaking of insolvency, California will be counterfeiting US dollars again very soon via its IOU program.  California’s Treasurer says the state is broke again – several months sooner than the fools politicians in the capital believed it would be.

The USSA now runs a debt-to-GDP ratio north of 100%.

Case-Shiller home price index has fallen for three consecutive months.

Another important con will be revealed Friday - and ignored, to be sure – when the BLS releases the tortured, yet government approved, employment figures. January is the month that the BLS fesses up to the prior year’s lies of its employment stats. The “birth/death” guesstimates get closer to reality by always and massively readjusting the prior year’s employment data lower.  Over the last five years the “adjustment” has averaged -335k. [January 2011: -339k, January 2010: -427k, January2009: -356k, January 2008: -378k, January2007: -175k.]

So the S&P is up 4.4% for the month and every analyst interviewed on television says it’s all good from here. Really? Why aren’t these clowns pressed further?  The way they speak they would have us believe that 4.4% is normal and will continue unabated through the end of the year, which would be a 52.8% annual gain. Uh-huh, sure it will.

Until it shifts, however, the trend is still UP (thanks to the central bank printing presses). But keep the aforementioned in mind when thinking of making a long term commitment to a stock, fund, or ETF.

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Did Bill Gross just endorse Ron Paul for President?
As a follow up to today's must read letter from Bill Gross, the PIMCO head explains what was the thinking behind the conclusion that is slowly leading him to become a gold bug, the potentially erroneous assumption that the Fed can not drop rates below zero (not if Goldman and JPM have their way), why Bernanke has no choice but to write checks when the Twist ends in June which will lead to bond buying for the next 12-24-36 months. Nothing new. What is new, and absolutely stunning, is Gross' endorsement for president: 'I'm a little Ron Paulish." (6'24" into the clip)... That's right. The bond king endorses Ron Paul for president, apparently on the realization that very soon he will have to pay Tim Geithner for the privilege of holding hundreds of billions in US paper. And now we've heard it all.  



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I still have tears in my eyes...


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